[Law] How Brexit may affect your wallet.

L'irlandais

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BBC report
Well many folks in Ireland (North and South) and Scotland woke up this morning regretting their neighbours decision. In the short term a price increase looks on the cards for many commodities in the UK, but can anybody honestly say what the long-term effect will be? This BBC report suggests Not, since economic forecasts for 2 years time are subject to many unforeseen variables.
 

crossref


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I want to know if the 1st July Law changes still apply to England
 

L'irlandais

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Depends I guess, UK law should remain unchanged by the referendum.
The process of leaving the EU begins today, but even optimistic estimates say it will take at least 2 years.
One delicate issue would be the extent to which the consent of the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly might be needed.
International relations are supposed to be a matter reserved to Westminster, but EU law does touch on the competences of devolved administrations, so, arguably, leaving the EU would affect their rights and powers
Source : BBC article
 
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FlipFlop


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Brexit has seen Oil falling, Gas and power falling, and other commodities are following. So it is FX that causes things to be more expensive in UK. (But the Euro won't be unscathed....)

In the bond markets, there is more strain on the Southern European bonds. This will put more strain on the already fragile economic peace between North and South.

There are so many scenarios going forward, I hope we get a sensible one, which for me means: No rush. Take the time. Don't invoke Article 50, don't turn on the clock, and put everyone under pressure. Take the time, negotiate as many of the required treaties as possible before invoking Article 50, and then it doesn't have to be 2 years after that, it could be much quicker.

And until Article 50 is invoked, UK still has a say in EU policy, so can use that as a bargaining tool if the EU try and carry out a nasty negotiation (As threatened by Junker et al.) But this option vanishes once Article 50 is invoked.

So here is to the hope of a slow, peaceful, stable, process.

But maybe that is a flying Farage going past my window.
 

Rich_NL

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Nothing has changed legally or economically yet; the referendum was advisory, there are no constitutional changes at all.
 

Phil E


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The process of leaving the EU begins today, but even optimistic estimates say it will take at least 2 years.

It's a minimum of two years.
 

DocY


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There are so many scenarios going forward, I hope we get a sensible one, which for me means: No rush. Take the time. Don't invoke Article 50, don't turn on the clock, and put everyone under pressure. Take the time, negotiate as many of the required treaties as possible before invoking Article 50, and then it doesn't have to be 2 years after that, it could be much quicker.

Oh to be Swiss today!

This is a catch 22 here. Yes, of course we want a sensible agreement (TBH the one the Berxiters were proposing is very attractive - just unrealistic), but the longer is taken to decide upon one, the longer there is uncertainty, so the longer Britain will be given the hard shoulder by investors.
 

L'irlandais

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...But EU law still applies in the U.K pending an exit...
...A fundamental tenet of EU treaty law is that it trumps all national law....

...The U.K. courts could face a constitutional crisis, if Leave campaign enact any immediate changes....

Sounds like a whole can of worms, I agree with flipflop it will impact other countries too, outside the UK.
 

OB..


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I think the country voted for pie in the sky. Few of them have any idea what sort of pie they can hope for, and the sky is very stormy. I am depressed (and the economy is heading the same way).
 

crossref


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If there is a general election later this year, as seems likely, it will be quite interesting if Labour/SNP/LibDems and Plaid Cymru all stood on a platform of ignoring the referendum because [reasons] and staying in.

If a party (or coalition) won a general election with that specific platform they would have the democratic mandate to ignore the earlier referendum....
 

L'irlandais

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It has been tried (unsuccessfully) in Poland earlier this year : Source : ft.
A change in Government can change domestic leglislation, but cannot undo what has been negotiate with foreign powers, without heading back to the negotiation table.
 

crossref


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It has been tried (unsuccessfully) in Poland earlier this year : Source : ft.
A change in Government can change domestic leglislation, but cannot undo what has been negotiate with foreign powers, without heading back to the negotiation table.

I think it will be quite a long time yet before the government does anything irrevocable ...
 

collybs


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The referendum result is only advisory - the Government do not have to leave the EU (Although they promised to do so). If there was a General Election before Article 50 has invoked, the Labour Party could include continued membership as part of their manifesto and if they win say that trumps the Referendum result. The Tory party would probably have leaving in their manifesto.
 

L'irlandais

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Yipe you are both correct, 1. the result is not mandatory
To quote the Ft once again 1. "The conventional wisdom is that, of course, a vote for Brexit would have to be respected," says the FT."
& 2 a new government could (in theory) dismiss the result of this referendum.
2 ...Very unlikely, say experts. Many commentators, including at the BBC, argue it would be "political suicide" if the government were to dismiss the result of a democratic vote.
 
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crossref


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The referendum result is only advisory - the Government do not have to leave the EU (Although they promised to do so). If there was a General Election before Article 50 has invoked, the Labour Party could include continued membership as part of their manifesto and if they win say that trumps the Referendum result. The Tory party would probably have leaving in their manifesto.

exactly.
and it's inconceivable that the government could invoke article 50 without the authority of parliament and one way or another a general election could be forced.

I think it's correct that a very large majority of MPs are pro-remain.
 

crossref


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2 ...Very unlikely, say experts. Many commentators, including at the BBC, argue it would be "political suicide" if the government were to dismiss the result of a democratic vote.

you are missing the point.

It would be very hard for this government to dismiss the referendum - but a new government elected on a manifesto promise to dismiss the result of the election would be in quite a different position.
 

L'irlandais

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Gents, for better, or for worse, the UK population have made known their wish to leave the EU.
All subsequent political decisions must take that fact into account.

Ps. I was quoting the Beeb's response to the notion a newly elected government could say their manifesto trumps the referendum result. I don't think the Beeb were missing the point, rather they were responding to it. A fuller extract, may make that clearer :
There is another scenario which could see the result overturned, says the BBC: "If MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one."

How likely would that be?
Very unlikely, say experts. Many commentators, including at the BBC, argue it would be "political suicide" if the government were to dismiss the result of a democratic vote
 
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DocY


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Interesting point about the next government and I wouldn't be surprised if at least one party tries it on. I'm not sure how I'd feel about a coalition of the far left though.

I'm not sure such a gambit would necessarily fail. Sure, a majority of voters voted to leave, but would the turnout be as high in a general election? It never has been. Particularly amongst one of the primary leave-voting demographics. Or it could go the other way. I've not spoken to anyone who didn't vote, but how many of them woke up thinking "oh dear"?

Or there might be a bit of buyer's remorse. Particularly after seeing what the economy's doing and going to do, I'd expect more leavers to reconsider than remainers.
 

L'irlandais

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Fair enough, but that's a bit of a hard sell- vote for us we promise to ignore what the majority have said they want.
 

DocY


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It would be a hard sell, but 35% of the electorate sound really very unhappy and I'd expect someone to try to tap into that. And you don't need a popular majority to form a working government - I forget when the last one was, but it wasn't in my lifetime. Even in Labour's win in '97 they had about 35% of the popular vote.
 
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