To card, or not to card?

[Dixie]

​I would, post #11.

In assessing mathmatically, does...... Likely = probably ?

We've discussed this before. The law requires that a PT be awarded if, but for the offence, a try would "probably" have been scored. When we have mathematical certainty about the probabilities concerned, we can see that 51% = probable. But in a topical example, which of us can say that tomorrow's Scottish independence election will "probably" go one way or the other? We don't have the mathematical certainty. I for one would certainly wish to see the polls much more consistently favour one side or the other, and with far smaller numbers of "don't knows", before I committed to one result being more probable than the other.

Similarly with rugby, alleged 51%/49% probability is not sufficiently precise to be able to say one way or the other - so a try would not be probable, even if it was judged to be the 51% possibility. I would say that 75% is probable, but in many cases there will be percentages between 51% and 75% that are also probable. For example: at Level 8, a winger has received 4 passes and has dropped 2 of them in the first 10 minutes of the game. He has an overlap 2m from the line, and the defender bats down the ball. That to me is a probable try in the absence of the offence, as the winger's career ratio of caught to dropped is almost certainly far higher than 50%, otherwise he wouldn't be in the team.

 

[leaguerefaus]

80 metres is a long run all by yourself...

 

[Browner]

We've discussed this before. The law requires that a PT be awarded if, but for the offence, a try would "probably" have been scored. When we have mathematical certainty about the probabilities concerned, we can see that 51% = probable. But in a topical example, which of us can say that tomorrow's Scottish independence election will "probably" go one way or the other? We don't have the mathematical certainty. I for one would certainly wish to see the polls much more consistently favour one side or the other, and with far smaller numbers of "don't knows", before I committed to one result being more probable than the other.

Similarly with rugby, alleged 51%/49% probability is not sufficiently precise to be able to say one way or the other - so a try would not be probable, even if it was judged to be the 51% possibility. I would say that 75% is probable, but in many cases there will be percentages between 51% and 75% that are also probable. For example: at Level 8, a winger has received 4 passes and has dropped 2 of them in the first 10 minutes of the game. He has an overlap 2m from the line, and the defender bats down the ball. That to me is a probable try in the absence of the offence, as the winger's career ratio of caught to dropped is almost certainly far higher than 50%, otherwise he wouldn't be in the team.

On that basis, the 5th team winger isn't ever getting awarded a PT, he's only playing cos the team are Away and he made the mistake of driving his brother to the meet point, and fitting the spare pair of boots they found !!

 

[Dixie]

80 metres is a long run all by yourself...

But many of us have run even further in competitive races, up to 100m even, without falling over.

 

[RobLev]

80 metres is a long run all by yourself...

I've run for a bus for 80m plus, carrying a briefcase (admittedly not recently). I've managed to avoid both falling over and dropping the briefcase; and I'd had no training for it.

And when MT's qualifications to play winger were being discussed in this august forum, the fact that he was caught short of the try-line by the NZ full back after a break from his own 22m line was cited as evidence he was unsuited to play on the wing. Why? Because any winger should score in that situation.

 

[leaguerefaus]

I was referring to it being a long way for the referee to run by himself while all the players just stand around.

 

[crossref]

I've run for a bus for 80m plus, carrying a briefcase (admittedly not recently). I've managed to avoid both falling over and dropping the briefcase; and I'd had no training for it.

.

conversely I also once ran 80m for a bus carrying a briefcase, and wearing a suit. The bus moved off and I leapt onto the open platform at the back (which tells you that - again - this was some time ago). Unfortunately I misjudged the acceleration of the bus, (and probably my own leaping ability at the end of an 80m sprint), missed my hold on the pole and fell off the back of the bus into the road and into a puddle, denting my briefcase, tearing my suit and bruising my shoulder, hip and ego.

When I got home my wife managed it, delivering a severe bollocking.

 

[Phil E]

But many of us have run even further in competitive races, up to 100m even, without falling over.

I am sure if I had the time I could find multiple YouTube clips of rugby players falling over their own feet just trying to run half that distance!

I was referring to it being a long way for the referee to run by himself while all the players just stand around.

LOL :biggrin:

 

[OB..]

My brother managed to break a bone in his foot recently when running for a bus. He stepped on the kerb awkwardly.

 

[OB..]

When we have mathematical certainty about the probabilities concerned, we can see that 51% = probable.

Mathematically that statement is an error.

A mathematical probability is simply a value from 0 to 1 where 0 = impossible and 1 = certain.

I reject the idea that in ordinary speech (which is how the word is being used in the Laws) it means as low a value a 50% + epsilon. People see that as evens. "Probable" necessarily means more likely than evens, but there is no way of getting any precise measurement.

 

[ChrisR]

"When I got home my wife managed it, delivering a severe bollocking."

Did she pull out the YC and make you spend 10 mins with the dog in the backyard?

This is another result of introducing theoretical scenarios. They hi-jack the thread and the OP gets lost in the babble.

 

[RobLev]

I was referring to it being a long way for the referee to run by himself while all the players just stand around.

"Captains please"

...

"Blue captain, your #11/14 is now going to have a rest for 10 minutes, during which he can reflect on the fact that he has by his deliberate knock on prevented the probable scoring of a try. The remaining 14 members of your team can join me in an invigorating run to your own posts behind which they will wait while Red's kicker seeks to convert the penalty try that I will award when we get there."