#### Dixie

Referees in England

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We've discussed this before. The law requires that a PT be awarded if, but for the offence, a try would "probably" have been scored. When we have mathematical certainty about the probabilities concerned, we can see that 51% = probable. But in a topical example, which of us can say that tomorrow's Scottish independence election will "probably" go one way or the other? We don't have the mathematical certainty. I for one would certainly wish to see the polls much more consistently favour one side or the other, and with far smaller numbers of "don't knows", before I committed to one result being more probable than the other.I would, post #11.

In assessing mathmatically, does...... Likely = probably ?

Similarly with rugby, alleged 51%/49% probability is not sufficiently precise to be able to say one way or the other - so a try would not be probable, even if it was judged to be the 51% possibility. I would say that 75% is probable, but in many cases there will be percentages between 51% and 75% that are also probable. For example: at Level 8, a winger has received 4 passes and has dropped 2 of them in the first 10 minutes of the game. He has an overlap 2m from the line, and the defender bats down the ball. That to me is a probable try in the absence of the offence, as the winger's career ratio of caught to dropped is almost certainly far higher than 50%, otherwise he wouldn't be in the team.