Statistics: lead changing from side to side

[Rushforth]

The post about betting got me to post this. Well, actually I was considering it since a humdinger of a match my club lost last week, having been ahead three (different) times in the game.

It is common, particularly when one side is outmatched, for the team that scores first to never lose the lead. Similarly, it is not uncommon - particularly at lower levels - for the side scoring first to lose their lead and never regain it. I wouldn't define a game in which the lead changed three times as a humdinger (it might be, but that depends more on the timings of the actual scores).

How often does the lead change more than three times in a game? Does this vary from level to level?

 

[L'irlandais]

Happens at international level
I am sure Munster Rugby have had it happen in the past, at Pro level.
Stuff of cup rugby, rather than league games. Both teams, any level need to be evenly matched, with all to play for.

 

[FlipFlop]

Happens a lot. Normally in the earlier stages of a game, and then it is only later on that the score starts to reflect the outcome.

 

[Camquin]

Cambridge v Old Albanians this season - two well matches sides who finished first and second in National 2 South

OAs took the lead on 4 minutes and lost it on 39. They regained it twice in the second half only to lose to a 77th minute try.

The match at Wollams was just as tight but OAs held the lead from the first score on 20 minutes until a last play try by Cambridge levelled the scores and the conversion took it 24-26. So you do not need constant lead changes to be a humdinger.

 

[4eyesbetter]

Looking through my most recent notebook I've got a merit league match with four lead changes (it finished 50-38). I've got a lot of games where the trailing team manages to level but can't quite pull past before the others extend their lead again, but then that's much more likely with 4-2-1 scoring than it is with 5-2-3.