BikingBud
Referees in England
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Impossible to tell from that clip if a try was probable without the knock on. It’s interesting that in circumstances like this, with a YC offence where advantage is played, if the team scores we often don’t return for the YC, and would rarely consider a PT although i understand your point that it would be more advantageous.
I think in most cases you cannot be certain a try would have been scored otherwise you probably wouldn’t call advantage in the first place.
But the match officials are not bound by the very limited perspective of that clip. They have the full range of cameras and angles available via the TMO, bizarre decision not to go there for a 10 second check. Watching live with different angles, no doubt in my mind.
I can only surmise he felt as the ball was recovered that yellow would score, there were no defenders out wide, so advantage. However, the opportunity to get closer to or under the posts had gone by the time the ball was recovered.
Just because they scored it doesn't inhibit the award of a penalty try, hence:
Penalty try: Awarded when, in the opinion of the referee, a try probably would have been scored (or scored in a more advantageous position) if not for an act of foul play by an opponent.