1. 10 point swing as there was no guarantee that the Wallabies would have scored a converted try.
Applying the logic you used for point 4, if the peno is given, ABs might not have scored another try. The discussion IMHO is about 2 trys, one for gold which could have happened and one for black that did. As we are talking about trys and obviously the subsequent conversions I'm sticking with 14 points. Gold may indeed have taken three having blown the advantage but 14 is the potential max swing of points in this incident.
2. People who were at the ground said they heard Stu Berry and Poite communicate about the Jane tackle (presumably on "Sports Ears"). Seems the TO3 didn't miss it, they saw it and decided it was "play on".
That's great.
[LAWS]10.4.(e) Dangerous Tackling.
A player must not tackle (or try to tackle) an opponent above the line of the shoulders even if the tackle starts below the line of the shoulders. A tackle around the opponent’s neck or head is dangerous play.[/LAWS]
Craig Joubert decided Richie gave a peno away in the Super final. Doesn't make it the correct decision. The tackle was high, therefore illegal and a penalty should have been given as a consequence.
3. Just prior to the Jane tackle, there was a blatant late tackle on Jane himself after he kicked, also not called.
I saw it. It was an attempted charge down which resulted in the charger and kicker colliding, not a late tackle and it was far form blatant.
[LAWS]10.4.(o) Late-charging the kicker.
A player must not intentionally charge or obstruct an opponent who has just kicked the ball.[/LAWS]
The law clearly asks for a demonstration of intent. This clearly places the interpretation of the action on the referee. His call and can be debated till the cows come home.
4. Its impossible to say what effect any of this had because as soon as you substitute what you think a decision should have been for what actually happened, the game restarts in a different place.
Correct.
This is what annoys me about idiots who, after a 5 point loss bemoan the two missed penalty goals in the first half. They don't understand that if either of them were successful, the game restarts differently (half way instead of 22m) and will unfold differently as a consequence. Who is to know that if Jane had been PK....
Hardly idiots. It is rather perceptive to recognise and debate the ebb and flow of the territorial battle coupled with possession and points total at a given point of a game and the effect it has on the rest of the match.