Heineken Cup Quarter Finals

[Bryan]

Given the post-RWC season is typically spent not watching ERC rugby, I was amused to see that there's a lack of English clubs (Saracens) that made it to the final QF round of the Heineken Cup, but that they featured prominently in the Amlin Challenge Cup (the younger, uglier unglamourous sister of the H-Cup) along with a lot of French teams.

Was this just a bad year due to the attrition of players post-RWC, or are teams so focused on staying above relegation that teams that compete in the RaboBankCreditSuisseGreekBackedSecurities-14 can stack the deck in the H-Cup and send on a team of no-names for the regular league stuff when they need to rest players?

 

[Skids]

Yes.

HTH. :wink:

 

[dave_clark]

i suggest there is little incentive for the Celtic league teams to concentrate on anything other than the HC. by this, I mean when was the last season that one of Munster, Leinster, Ulster, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Ospreys or Scarlets failed to make it into the tournament.

the English on the other hand have a struggle every year to even qualify. it perhaps can't be surprising that we're knackered when we get there.

or maybe the English teams are just shit this year. seems unlikely...

 

[L'irlandais]

...or maybe the English teams are just shit this year. seems unlikely...

I agree, Gloucester outclassed Toulouse last weekend, so the standard of English rugby is fine. Not that I hear any Irish clubs complaining, but having a bye into the competition each year is not the best solution for the H-cup in the long run. All Quarter finalists should get a bye, but the rest needs looking at for sure.

For example Scarlets always start the H-cup, but have they ever reached a final?

 

[Account Deleted]

i suggest there is little incentive for the Celtic league teams to concentrate on anything other than the HC. by this, I mean when was the last season that one of Munster, Leinster, Ulster, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Ospreys or Scarlets failed to make it into the tournament.

Spot on.

Edinburgh and Glasgow and the two Italian sides qualify for the HEC regardless anyone of those 4 could lose EVERY game in the "Rabid Rabbit" and they are in!

Munster, Leinster & Ulster only have to finish above Connacht to qualify.

Cardiff, Ospreys & Scarlets only have to finish above Newport to do so.

For the "big three" in both Ireland and Wales once you have secured third or above in your own country you can sit back. So you send reserves to the away games and target certain games.

 

[crossref]

the celts may seem to have fixed it all their own way -- but in the long run if no one can be arsed to go and watch all the reserves playing in pro-12 then this strategy could backfire..

 

[dave_clark]

Munster, Leinster & Ulster only have to finish above Connacht to qualify.

yet this year, all 4 of the Irish teams qualified!

 

[Jenko]

yet this year, all 4 of the Irish teams qualified!

because leinster won it last year. Same as England would get 7 teams next year if Saracens win it this year!

 

[Account Deleted]

yet this year, all 4 of the Irish teams qualified!

As with Newport getting in through the "cat flap" when Cardiff won the Amlin a few years back (something to do with the HEC winners countries being "maxed out"). So finish in the top 3 of your country and you are in what ever happens. Even if you don't you might still get there.

 

[The umpire]

789]Edinburgh and Glasgow and the two Italian sides qualify for the HEC [/QUOTE] because it was set up as a competition among the SIX countries. At the time Scotland had 3 or 4 pro teams, Wales 5, Ireland 4 and England and France lots. So there was always cpmpetition for places, hopefully it will be like that aganin. The only reason the Premiership bloke is raising it now is cos this year his teams have been gubbed. When Leicester and Bath were riding high, did we hear a cheep from him? Did we 'eckaslike? Besides, what he really wants is to ring fence the AP and stop relegation in his own league.

 

[richie]

-- but in the long run if no one can be arsed to go and watch all the reserves playing in pro-12 then this strategy could backfire..

dunno about that, leinster and munster regularly get 15,000+ to Rabo matches . In most cases 'the reserves' are a mix of academy, fringe players and a few journeymen southern hemis. players.
Also the IRFU has a player welfare programme of limiting game time for front line players, so its a win win as they get recovery time and younger lads get game time and we get three teams in Q finals:smile::smile:

 

[dave_clark]

because leinster won it last year. Same as England would get 7 teams next year if Saracens win it this year!

interesting - the rules must have changed, because Connort (or however they're spelt) had their first shot at the HC this year.

 

[L'irlandais]

That'll be Connacht (or Connaught as you English insist on) who may get another bite at the cherry, next season. With 3 Irish squads thru to the Quarter Finals, what are the odds against another Irish win this year.

 

[Adam]

That'll be Connacht (or Connaught as you English insist on) who may get another bite at the cherry, next season. With 3 Irish squads thru to the Quarter Finals, what are the odds against another Irish win this year.

62.5%

 

[SimonSmith]

Please show workings

 

[L'irlandais]

Please show workings

Solution :
Well I suspect the maths of it are a little more complicated than that.

• Edinburgh Rugby v Toulouse in Murrayfield 0%
  v
• Leinster Rugby v Cardiff Blues at Aviva Stadium 50%+

Leinster have a better than a 50% chance of getting to the semi-final, since home advantage is massive in the H-Cup. However they then have an away semi-final (especially if it's Toulouse) to face up to.

• Munster Rugby v Ulster Rugby in Thomond Park 100%
  v
• Saracens v ASM Clermont Auvergne at Vicarage Road 0%

We are sure to have 1 Irish team in the Semi-finals, who will have home advantage so better chance of progressing to final. (Could see Ulster beating Clermont, if they were to meet again.)

I was thinking more along the lines of these kind of odds - 4/7 chance of an Irish team winning (according to paddypower. While Ladbrookes have us at 4/6 favourites. :biggrin: But all this could change depending on who else progresses to the semi-finals (scroll-down) along with the Irish teams. :chin:

 

[Taff]

62.5%

.... I was thinking more along the lines of 4/7 chance of an Irish team winning ...

Hell L'irlandais 4/7 is 57.1%.

What's 5.4% between friends man? :biggrin:

Having seen Leinster play a couple of times, my money would be on them. :ireland:

 

[L'irlandais]

Hi Taff,
I've never been great at calculating betting odds.
I know "Odds on" is any price which is shorter than evens (1/1)

There's only 1 English side in it, yet they are 6/1. Which means they have a 14% chance of winning the H-cup & a 86% chance of not winning it. So the odds are "stacked against" the side.

:shrug: So does 4/6 simply mean there's a 40% we don't win & 60% chance we do?

 

[dave_clark]

:shrug: So does 4/6 simply mean there's a 40% we don't win & 60% chance we do?

nope. the odds are adjusted based on the betting patterns, to try and give as competitive returns as possible to the punters while still returning a profit for the bookies.

the favourite according to the odds may not be the most likely to win, if there have been irregular betting patterns.

 

[Ricardowensleydale]

nope. the odds are adjusted based on the betting patterns, to try and give as competitive returns as possible to the punters while still returning a profit for the bookies.

the favourite according to the odds may not be the most likely to win, if there have been irregular betting patterns.

You can also get slight variations if you choose you bookmaker carefully. For example Paddy Power (or a mainlaind Eire bookmaker) may well have taken lots of money on an Irish side winning so their payout would be slightly less generous. Not quite so true in these days of internet betting but always worth checking.