Would they really?

[stuart3826]

Theoretical question

White is awarded a 5m scrum, held up in goal. White put in, make a few feet driving progress and scrum goes down. Let's say, cos I have my scrum coaches head on here, the ref penalises white.

What are the chances that White took it down? Given they stand to gain 5 or 7 points for a try & conversion. Wouldn't it be more likely that the defending side took it down?

What's the ref's view?

I'll come back with my feelings later, after I've had some opinions

 

[Davet]

who knows?

its possible that the drive was stopped, maybe white FR overstretched themselves, and decided to fall over.

Maybe not likely, but possible, ....

Which is why we tend not to award penalties on probabilities but on what we see has happened.

If we don't see a penalty then we reset the scrum - and look a damn sight harder this time.

 

[scrumpox2]

The assumption in the question is that the ref will guess and award on probability.
As an ex front row player, no way on earth would an advancing front row attempt a double bluff and take that scrum down, matter of honour and psychological advantage.

 

[Davet]

Scrumpox - if all was well with you then I agree, I know very few FRs that woud try a double bluff to get a penalty here - but if after a short drive you hit a patch of mud, studs start slipping, oppo's feet are now out of that mud and acn put pressure back on you... you get uncomfortable, momentum lost... calculation you may make....

 

[Simon Thomas]

One in a hundred, or thousand even, would I expect white to drop the scrum in the circumstances described.

 

[ex-lucy]

reset scrum and go round that side to look .. or ask AR to take a close look.

 

[scrumpox2]

Scrumpox - if all was well with you then I agree, I know very few FRs that woud try a double bluff to get a penalty here - but if after a short drive you hit a patch of mud, studs start slipping, oppo's feet are now out of that mud and acn put pressure back on you... you get uncomfortable, momentum lost... calculation you may make....

No way Davet, I'm not taking that scrum down and risking a penalty, I would trust 8 and 9 to make a call in that situation.
If there's a slip, I'd be happy to have another go from the reset hopefully in a new location with some grass.

In my day the only time we (front row) ever took a scrum down was if we felt our second row were down behind us, this was to avoid them and us getting stomped.

 

[Simon Thomas]

Only a lunatic would deliberately drop a serious scrum with all that weight and power present, but there are a few around of course.

Many years ago as a late teenage player I was told by a experienced FR on a long train journey home from Newcastle (after playing Gosforth and been made to look very silly by Malcolm Young ) to look for the member of the FR who has landed in a very safe controlled position and he is the likely culprit - anyone bent double with hsi neck twisted is less likely to be the initiator.

 

[Dixie]

But to come back to the OP's question, I think most refs would not guess in that sitaution, but would do as he has done all game - award what he sees. If there are multiple drops and the ref can't tell who's playing games, he might be more tempted to guess - but that's when the risk of the attackers playing double bluff is at its highest. Third reset, defenders have dropped it and attackers have moaned each time, ref must be wondering about a PT even without the serial PK's he might have awarded if he were more skilled in perception or the players less skilled in deception. The possibility of double-bluffing a YC might swing the balance for a FR.

 

[FlipFlop]

Read BCMs document on here somewhere.

He is more qualified than us, and basically (if I remember correctly) that if the ball winning side is going forward, they are highly unlikely to take it down. It is more dangerous for them than the retreating props, and they gain nothing.

 

[OB..]

It is a situation where probabilities are irrelevant. Blow what you see.

 

[Davet]

Even though the odds are against one side or the other we don't usually award penalties (and especially Pentalty tries, which is where this could be leading) based on the SP.

 

[andyscott]

Theoretical question

White is awarded a 5m scrum, held up in goal. White put in, make a few feet driving progress and scrum goes down. Let's say, cos I have my scrum coaches head on here, the ref penalises white.

What are the chances that White took it down? Given they stand to gain 5 or 7 points for a try & conversion. Wouldn't it be more likely that the defending side took it down?

What's the ref's view?

I'll come back with my feelings later, after I've had some opinions

Few feet? Fast drive with momentum or slow and momentum stopped then collapsed?
3 possibilities in my mind?
1. White took it down, hoping for PT, kick under posts, and a YC.
2. White took it down by slipping no deliberately
3. Defending side collapse the scrum.

My money is on 1. Unless it's a quick drive.

I used to do it all the time as a double bluff.
Don't let the pride and honour stuff cloud the issue, there isn't much in elite rugby, it's money and it's a job so you do what your employer tells you

 

[SimonSmith]

The assumption in the question is that the ref will guess and award on probability.
As an ex front row player, no way on earth would an advancing front row attempt a double bluff and take that scrum down, matter of honour and psychological advantage.

An Australian U21 Hooker spoke to CUDRRS in, oooh, 1996.
He flatly contradicted that statement. Yes, a front row will go down if they want three points.

TBH, with the FR, I tend to referee what I see, and not base it on field position/possession etc.

 

[stuart3826]

Thanks for the replies - seems to be a bit of a split there!

 

[Davet]

Not really a split -
I think everyone is saying "forget the odds, give what you see not what you bet on"

 

[didds]

The assumption in the question is that the ref will guess and award on probability.
As an ex front row player, no way on earth would an advancing front row attempt a double bluff and take that scrum down, matter of honour and psychological advantage.

you may have to ask Graham Rowntree about that...

didds

 

[Adam]

An Australian U21 Hooker spoke to CUDRRS in, oooh, 1996.
He flatly contradicted that statement. Yes, a front row will go down if they want three points.

Yeah but he is an Australian hooker! I don't know an Australian front row player who wouldn't/doesn't go down!

 

[Davet]

I don't know an Australian front row player who wouldn't/doesn't go down!

.....

Nah, temptation resisted in the cause of moral restraint.


That might be a first for me.