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Unlike a high tackle, the Blue player was not affecting the Red player. Blue had options to make the ball dead and picked a poor one. If you want to say it wasn't probable for Blue to catch the ball and ground it, how can you say it would have been probable for Red to do it?
That logic flaw seems flawed.
The argument is not that Blue probably couldn't, simply that Blue elected not to.
Remove that Blue player from the equation.
Now ask if Red would probably have scored. If yes, PT, if not PK.
We don't ask what the offending player coulda/woulda/shoulda, we look at what they actually did.