Watch the video from 1:30, it a slo-mo of the view from behind Gear. (video should go straight to it)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBk6PjwsILA&t=1m30s
Now, recognise this?
"...his right elbow moves away from his body and strikes the tackler on the jaw. The elbow is
then pushed back by the impact into his side, and
then he uses the arm as a lever, but the elbow strike had already taken place by then."
Its quoted directly from your post #18, word for word, as justification for RC Jeb Sinclair. It describes the Gear fend near perfectly.
Near only counts in hand grenades and horsehoes...
Note also that as Gear fends with his
right arm, his
right leg is going forward. This is contrary to your statement about human locomotion in Post #84
"Right arm and right leg in synch? That is not normal human locomotion. Try it. It feels completely unnatural."
In fact it is far more common this way that the way you suggested. If you watch fends taking place, you will see that they happen like this much more frequently than the other way around, because the ball carrier is fending from his
"strong" side. A player who tries to fend a tackler to the right while his left leg is going forward is doing so from his
"weak" side.
Also watch Gear's actions as he sees Keith Earls approaching from his right. He slows down to adjust striding and timing so that he does fend on his strong side. If Hosea Gear was a horse, he would be a
great showjumper or eventer, because this is exactly what a great jumping horse does when approaching an obstacle; shorten/lengthen to adjust his stride to kick off on the strong leg.
A little context; my reference to human locomotion was in response to claims by various respondents that Sinclair's right arm was moving forward because he was running; it was that which I was addressing by pointing out that it wasn't natural to be moving the right arm forward with the right leg. That being said, I otherwise agree with what you say above.
There are a couple of relevant differences between Sinclair and Gear. The first is that I see Gear locking out (to borrow from weightlifting) the arm at the moment of impact with Earles - I don't see that from Sinclair, whose arm is still moving forward at the moment of impact with Jackson. That it seems to me is crucial - it's the difference between you striking the opponent with the elbow, and the opponent striking your elbow (in fact, in Gear's case it wasn't even the elbow, but the forearm - as Earles falls away, you can see Gear's wrist below the throat). There is also the fact that Earles tries to pull the arm down with his left hand; he fails, but the forearm rebounds upward as a result.
I certainly wouldn't have red-carded Gear - I can't see here the clear and obvious (to the TMO) elbow (or forearm) strike contrary to Law 10.4(a) that I see with Sinclair.
As an aside, while it played no part in my original reasoning, I am fortified in my view by Sinclair's actions as he leaves the field. He indicates that he kept his elbow tucked into his side; which on any view isn't correct (we all, I think, agree the arm moves forward before impact, and again after it, and the issue is the significance of that first arm movement).