Rwc nz v aus

menace


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Ok...first shot. image.jpeg

Actually I think it's pretty rank....but I still had to chuckle.

Unfortunately I think NZ will be too good for Aust. They're in good form and just clinical all over the park.
 

Dixie


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We have reached the right final, but in totally the wrong way. As a result of France's capitulation, NZ has had only one real challenge - the Semi-Final against SA. Australia on the other hand has had to defeat England, Fiji, Wales and Argentina, and rely on the referee to overcome a huge Scottish challenge. That's 5 tough games against top-10 teams in five weeks, coupled with a day less to prepare for the final. World Rugby should hang its head in shame.
 

Pegleg

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I do think that it is the "right" final. NZ are favorites in my mind. BUT I do thing that Australia are the best equipt side to defeat them. So it all makes for a cracker.
 

crossref


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We have reached the right final, but in totally the wrong way. As a result of France's capitulation, NZ has had only one real challenge - the Semi-Final against SA. Australia on the other hand has had to defeat England, Fiji, Wales and Argentina, and rely on the referee to overcome a huge Scottish challenge. That's 5 tough games against top-10 teams in five weeks, coupled with a day less to prepare for the final. World Rugby should hang its head in shame.

well, one of Aus 5 top challenges was Argentina - and NZ had to play them as well as SA

but yes your overall point is completely correct, the seeding was a shambles, and then the luck of the draw meant that the poor seeding had the maximun possible impact.
 

Pegleg

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We have reached the right final, but in totally the wrong way. As a result of France's capitulation, NZ has had only one real challenge - the Semi-Final against SA. Australia on the other hand has had to defeat England, Fiji, Wales and Argentina, and rely on the referee to overcome a huge Scottish challenge. That's 5 tough games against top-10 teams in five weeks, coupled with a day less to prepare for the final. World Rugby should hang its head in shame.

Was it WR's fault that France surrendered?

Was it WR's fault that Roger Lewis and his money grabbing extra AI cost Wales a place in the top seeds?

Mind you had Wales been in the top seeds then Argentina would have been in Wales' seeding spot. So the group would have had Australia, England and Argentina in that group. Then Wales would have been in NZ's group in place of Argentina (you forgot that game I noticed - both Australia {29-15} and New Zealand {26-16} played against Argentina).
 

Dickie E


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We have reached the right final, but in totally the wrong way. As a result of France's capitulation, NZ has had only one real challenge - the Semi-Final against SA. Australia on the other hand has had to defeat England, Fiji, Wales and Argentina, and rely on the referee to overcome a huge Scottish challenge. That's 5 tough games against top-10 teams in five weeks, coupled with a day less to prepare for the final. World Rugby should hang its head in shame.

We'll be better for having taken the tough road. No serious injury cloud apart from Folou. NZ have been hot & cold throughout the pool games.
 

galumay

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I think the Wallabies are a real chance, but it still comes down to the little thigs on the day. Its certainly the 2 best sides in the final. NZ have looked oddly flat this RWC, maybe its the lack of competition? They were particularly passive against a weak Boks side and Hansen will need to lift them if they are going to take the game from the Wallabies.

Looking forward to a cracker of a game and may the best team win! Good luck to my friends across the ditch, and good luck to the Wallabies.
 

Crucial

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We have reached the right final, but in totally the wrong way. As a result of France's capitulation, NZ has had only one real challenge - the Semi-Final against SA. Australia on the other hand has had to defeat England, Fiji, Wales and Argentina, and rely on the referee to overcome a huge Scottish challenge. That's 5 tough games against top-10 teams in five weeks, coupled with a day less to prepare for the final. World Rugby should hang its head in shame.

Why?

I fully agree that the draw is done too far out, but under the situation of a non-global season, the distortions caused by annual touring draws and Lions tours and the clear fact that some teams use the intervening years to trial toward a RWC year rather than be as good as they can be at that point in time, what is the solution?
12 months ago would Australia have been ranked number 2? I don't think so, even the WR rankings had them at 4.
Logistical reasons mean that draws need to be done at some point prior to the tournament. When is that exact time? What do you suggest?
 

davidlandy

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Interesting that NZ are hot favourites... if you look at the teams they're almost the exact same teams that had Aus beat NZ by 8 points only a few months ago in the Tri (sorry Quad) Nations! Have the bookmakers got it wrong?
 

Ian_Cook


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Interesting that NZ are hot favourites... if you look at the teams they're almost the exact same teams that had Aus beat NZ by 8 points only a few months ago in the Tri (sorry Quad) Nations! Have the bookmakers got it wrong?

And close to the same team that ended up on the field in the second half when NZ beat Aust by 28 points a week later. (Cooper instead of Foley was the only real significant difference). It was the second half where all the dmamage was done; four converted tries unanswered until the last minute.


These two teams are so close that it really is going to come down to 1-2% in performance and execution. The team that gets that 1-2% right will win.
 
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irishref


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I'm not really sure. Ireland got stuffed and since then I've been watching without prejudice.

I think it will be one hell of a final. Really looking forward to it. My game Saturday has been brought forward by an hour so we can all watch it after on the big screen. Can't wait.
 

Dickie E


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galumay

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Interesting that NZ are hot favourites... if you look at the teams they're almost the exact same teams that had Aus beat NZ by 8 points only a few months ago in the Tri (sorry Quad) Nations! Have the bookmakers got it wrong?

Nonu is one big difference. He wasnt there in the one we won and was back for the Eden Park flogging. Pocock started off the bench from memory in the 2nd one too.

Both playing away helps the Wallabies more than the AB's I suspect.

Bookies are right though, NZ are clear favourites from a statistical point of view - which is all that bookies are interested in and thats why they make the money and not the punters. Doesnt mean the Aussies cant win it though, just that we have to play better than average and the AB's a little bit off their best!

Possibly the other reason for the odds being strongly in the AB's favour is the rather odd decision to award the final to Owens, he has show an unconcious bias towards the AB's over many years, as most teams can attest to. Even the Kiwis openly acknowledge him as a 'friendly' referee.
 
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Rushforth


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Bookies are right though, NZ are clear favourites from a statistical point of view - which is all that bookies are interested in and thats why they make the money and not the punters.

You are mixing metaphors and mathematics. And money.

Bookies do not base their odds on past history for very long, for an event that hasn't happened yet. They don't even aim to make a huge profit, on any given event. Rather, they are in the business of arbitrage - balancing the betting for event A or B so that they never make a loss themselves, if at all possible. Obviously they have to offer initial odds, which are based on history, and obviously they will make mistakes too.

ABs are favourites because punters prefer them at 2/5 over Aussies at 5/2, or rather equally at those odds. But that's the level of statistics there is to it: NZ money voting more than Oz money.

That's why I am not a gambling man :)
 

Crucial

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Interesting that NZ are hot favourites... if you look at the teams they're almost the exact same teams that had Aus beat NZ by 8 points only a few months ago in the Tri (sorry Quad) Nations! Have the bookmakers got it wrong?

Bookmakers look to balance books and make money not to provide statistical odds of winning.

If they expect/receive lots of money on NZ then the Oz price will move out to capture some $ to mitigate potential losses.

The odds provided are more an indication of where punters are putting their money than what bookies think the difference between the teams is.

The NZ TAB for example has to try and balance a potential pasting from a NZ win by providing attractive odds on Australia
 

Crucial

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Possibly the other reason for the odds being strongly in the AB's favour is the rather odd decision to award the final to Owens, he has show an unconcious bias towards the AB's over many years, as most teams can attest to. Even the Kiwis openly acknowledge him as a 'friendly' referee.

I think it is more that his 'style' suits NZ rather than any unconscious bias. His breakdown management is very different to WB (who allows a free for all) and he places value on the attacking team being able to recycle quickly. I don't think Moore would get away with the slow roll away that he did with WB and any defender that flops over the ball can expect a telling off.

He isn't trigger happy regarding breakdown steals and gives benefit of the doubt to the 'jackler' which plays as much into Australia's hands as NZs. Both McCaw and Pocock are expert of putting the ref in two minds as to whether they were legal. NO seems to try not to guess and assumes legality before illegality. He does appear to have a bee in his bonnet about hands on the deck/not supporting weight, which could go against Pocock who does this more than McCaw does.
 

menace


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These two teams are so close that it really is going to come down to 1-2% in performance and execution. The team that gets that 1-2% right will win.

I think you're flattering Australia....I think the divide is much bigger than that.
As others said - for any chance aust need to be 100% on their game and NZ need to drop off at least 10-20%. They won't. They're too clinical.
 

Dickie E


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I think you're flattering Australia....I think the divide is much bigger than that.
As others said - for any chance aust need to be 100% on their game and NZ need to drop off at least 10-20%. They won't. They're too clinical.

Oz have played some real pressure cooker games at Twickenham over the last 6 weeks (inc. beating England in front of a hometown crowd & denying Wales with 13 men). That could be a plus mentally.
 

galumay

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I think it is more that his 'style' suits NZ rather than any unconscious bias. His breakdown management is very different to WB (who allows a free for all) and he places value on the attacking team being able to recycle quickly. I don't think Moore would get away with the slow roll away that he did with WB and any defender that flops over the ball can expect a telling off.

He isn't trigger happy regarding breakdown steals and gives benefit of the doubt to the 'jackler' which plays as much into Australia's hands as NZs. Both McCaw and Pocock are expert of putting the ref in two minds as to whether they were legal. NO seems to try not to guess and assumes legality before illegality. He does appear to have a bee in his bonnet about hands on the deck/not supporting weight, which could go against Pocock who does this more than McCaw does.

I think the 'unconcious bias" is real, as I say even the Kiwis talk about it. He has a sort of reverence for the AB's that translates into one sided decision making.

I hear what you are saying about the breakdown, but based on the Argentina game, he has changed his style. He let both sides hold on to the ball for an eternity in tackles - at least he policed it just as poorly going both ways! I think thats the difference, when ever he is refereeing games without NZ playing he seems very balanced and even if you dont like his interpretation it is the same for both sides.

It never seems that way when NZ is involved, and not just with Aus. France, England and Ireland have all been on the wrong end of it at different times!

Its the same as any game though, you just have to be good enough and have enough points on the scoreboard to nullify his influence, its never an excuse for not performing well enough to win. I just find it an odd choice by WR given the perception about NO and the AB's.
 

Crucial

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It never seems that way when NZ is involved, and not just with Aus. France, England and Ireland have all been on the wrong end of it at different times!
.

Seriously?

Using the 2013 match against Ireland as an example (refereed by NO and almost resulting in the first ever loss to Ireland by the ABs).

NZ took a tactic into the match of not sending players into the tackle area early then seeing if the ball was able to be contested before committing. Irish forwards were sealing of the tackle zone and going off their feet past the ball meaning nothing was contestable. When McCaw questioned NO, his reply was that 'you aren't contesting so I don't care what they are doing'.
NZ had to ditch that tactic altogether as NO wasn't allowing it to work.

NO favours a style of play, not a team.
I concede that if that style doesn't suit your team then it appears like he is favouring the other side.
His style suits NZ.
 
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