[Law] How Brexit may affect your wallet.

[crossref]

Fair enough, but that's a bit of a hard sell- vote for us we promise to ignore what the majority have said they want.

at the same time they would be saying that circumstances have changed, we have a lot more information, the path-to-out is clearer, the path-to-in is clearer etc etc ..

The electorate were very evenly split and winning the election on that ticket gives you democratic mandate.

 

[L'irlandais]

Well, interestingly Article 50 is mostly about procedure :

This summary of what Article 50 is and how it works from a European Parliament briefing paper:
The right of a Member State to withdraw from the European Union was introduced for*the first time with the Lisbon Treaty; the possibility of withdrawal was highly*controversial before that. Article 50 TEU does not set down any substantive conditions*for a Member State to be able to exercise its right to withdraw, rather it includes only*procedural requirements. It provides for the negotiation of a withdrawal agreement*between the EU and the withdrawing state, defining in particular the latter's future*relationship with the Union. If no agreement is concluded within two years, that*state's membership ends automatically, unless the European Council and the Member*State concerned decide jointly to extend this period.
The legal consequence of a withdrawal from the EU is the end of the application of the*EU Treaties (and the Protocols thereto) in the state concerned from that point on. EU law ceases to apply in the withdrawing state, although any national acts adopted in*implementation or transposition of EU law would remain valid until the national*authorities decide to amend or repeal them. A withdrawal agreement would need to*address the phasing-out of EU financial programmes and other EU norms.

*The negotiators on the EU side may choose to play hard ball, to discourage others from following the UK’s example. Fabian Zuleeg, an analyst at the European Policy Centre told the Observer that it is not in their political interest “to concede a lot to the UK,"*
Source: independent newspaper

The upshot of this is, while it may suit Nigel Farage to negotiate slowly until 2020
Brussels may well call a halt to negotiations after two years, as a warning shot across the bows of France and Netherlands who already are chomping at the bit. Perhaps Nige didn't read that bit... In fact because of UKiP's continual disruption of the European Parliment over the years, he is the last person i would want negotiating the "best" deal possible. People like Junkers must be allergic to the very sound of his voice by this stage.

 

[didds]

2 ...Very unlikely, say experts. Many commentators, including at the BBC, argue it would be "political suicide" if the government were to dismiss the result of a democratic vote.

I would agree - BUT... the point already made that IF a GE was called before article 50 was invoked, then a party getting elected with a stated platform of REMAIN, would/could claim a mandate to follow through with that lack of action.

And history shows you can get elected with substantially less than 52% of the total votes cast

didds

 

[crossref]

The upshot of this is, while it may suit Nigel Farage to negotiate slowly until 2020
Brussels may well call a halt to negotiations after two years, as a warning shot across the bows of France and Netherlands who already are chomping at the bit. Perhaps Nige didn't read that bit... In fact because of UKiP's continual disruption of the European Parliment over the years, he is the last person i would want negotiating the "best" deal possible. People like Junkers must be allergic to the very sound of his voice by this stage.

The govt will be doing the negotiating.
Farage isn't in the government, he won't be negotiating with anyone.

 

[DocY]

This could easily be used as a vehicle for Labour to move back into the middle ground, too. If they elected a moderate leader following their vote of no confidence and promised to ignore the referendum they could start taking seats from the Tories. I don't expect losing them to UKIP would be a huge concern - hopefully they'll disintegrate now and I can't imagine much more defecting after the last election.

 

[L'irlandais]

The govt will be doing the negotiating.
Farage isn't in the government, he won't be negotiating with anyone.

Spot on, which is why his proposal of a "unilateral withdrawal", can never work, it depends on the goodwill of people he has been insulting for years. How good of him to promise things, he is in no position to guarantee.
One very likely scenario now, is that the PM invokes Article 50 without delay. Source : scroll to end

 

[crossref]

This could easily be used as a vehicle for Labour to move back into the middle ground, too. If they elected a moderate leader following their vote of no confidence and promised to ignore the referendum they could start taking seats from the Tories. I don't expect losing them to UKIP would be a huge concern - hopefully they'll disintegrate now and I can't imagine much more defecting after the last election.

1 - the EU change the rules on free movement so that states can put some sort of limits/controls on immigration

2 - one or other party campaigns on a manifesto that says things are so different the referendum can be ignored, and winning the election gives them the mandate to do so.

3 - with people's main worry removed (or substantially ameliorated) they enthusiastically vote for that deal

Well, (1) is hard !!
but the stakes are high

 

[L'irlandais]

The Labour leader isn't on the same wavelength as you two, he is calling for article 50 to be invoked immediately.

In terms of European freedom of movement, Bear in mind both UK and Ireland are outside Schengen Area anyway. Leaving EU will impact on Britsih expats in EU and EU members working in UK. The current refugee crisis is not EU fault, it is a humanitarian issue which even an Indenpendent UK will have to take responsiblity for.

 

[crossref]

The Labour leader isn't on the same wavelength as you two, he is calling for article 50 to be invoked immediately.
.

wow!

yes, I think that for that sort of scenario to play out Labour will need a new leader

what a mess the Tories and Labour have made of this, between them

 

[crossref]

David Cameron has said he plans to let his successor activate Article 50, which is the point when the clock starts on the negotiations for a Brexit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36619817

that would set it up nicely for the new Tory leader to call an election to seek a democratic mandate for his/her government before embarking on such a momentous journey.... giving us a general election before article 50, which would inevitably be seen as a referendum re-run.

what an exciting day.

 

[crossref]

meanwhile we might get thrown out!

Top EU leader: we want Britain out as soon as possible

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

 

[L'irlandais]

That's a sensible decision from your PM

The bad news for Brexit, is that Donald Trump thinks "it's a great thing". Idiot doesn't even realize the majority of Scottish people were opposed to it. Nice one Donald, I suspect many Scots might wish to tell you where to stick your investment.

Schultz opinion doesn't count for much, it's not a EU legislative procedure, the U.K. Decides if and when to invoke article 50.

 

[DocY]

what an exciting day.

Well I'm glad someone (other than Farage) is enjoying it

 

[crossref]

Well I'm glad someone (other than Farage) is enjoying it

presumably 51.5% of the population are quite happy

 

[DocY]

presumably 51.5% of the population are quite happy

Oh yeah - forgot about them.

 

[chbg]

presumably 51.5% of the population are quite happy

51.5% of the 72% of adults who voted.

 

[Rushforth]

51.5% of the 72% of adults who voted.

It should be added that up to 75% of those under 25 who are enfranchised voted to remain, and that those under 18 didn't get a vote.

 

[4eyesbetter]

If they elected a moderate leader following their vote of no confidence

This will not happen. Corbyn was elected overwhelmingly by the membership. If they force another leadership election, he will win again.

 

[Pegleg]

It's a minimum of two years.

I think that is basically what he said:

L'irlandais][/B] The process of leaving the EU begins today, but even optimistic estimates say it will take at least 2 years.

In fact it is 2 years from the invoking of Article 50 which, at the moment is going to be around October 2016. So the process does not begin today. The EU seem keen to complete it before Oct 2018 though. However, they can't change the date of the invocation. That is the UK's call.

Untill we do leave it is business as usual. With the obvious uncertainty and effects on markets.

 

[Pegleg]

If there is a general election later this year, as seems likely, it will be quite interesting if Labour/SNP/LibDems and Plaid Cymru all stood on a platform of ignoring the referendum because [reasons] and staying in.

If a party (or coalition) won a general election with that specific platform they would have the democratic mandate to ignore the earlier referendum....

The vote was not binding.