[Law] How Brexit may affect your wallet.

[Pegleg]

Perhaps "tiny" was a bit strong. However, Exit polls are notoriously wrong. So I don't but a poll where we have a very big turnout to be necessarily valid. People leaving as a group may well give answers that are based on the group and not individual.

Regarding the calling of an election. There is, to my knowledge, nothing to stop the government resigning. Clearly Labour could not form a government so a GE would have to occur. Any new Leader could do this, not by calling a vote of NC but by saying that he feels that the fundamental constitutional change removes his / her mandate. A number of Tory spokespeople claimed the Brown should have gone to the country when he took over from Blair as he had not been given a "personal mandate" to be PM. The new Conservative leader could follow that line.

 

[Pegleg]

I certainly hope no trigger is pulled on Article 50 yet because if we are to negotiate to leave I don't want negotiations being led by a bunch a MPs who mostly wanted to stay.

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election? It would give the nation a chance to select which Leave manifesto they wish to back (or if you're hopeful of staying, choosing a leader to tell the EU we're staying).

There will be no "leave manifesto" to choose. there will be long an difficult negotiations.

Are you confident that any MP has the negotiating skills needed? Personally if I was in charge I would get a bus load of the best negotiators this country has to offer - and bluntly, they are unlikely to be MPs.

Well it will be MPs and to a very large extent senior civil servants. Ironic really that unelected bureaucrats will be the main workers sorting out of exit from an organisation that many believe to be bureaucratic.

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election? It would give the nation a chance to select which Leave manifesto they wish to back (or if you're hopeful of staying, choosing a leader to tell the EU we're staying).

They may decide that there is enough uncertainty already, and don't want to create more.

I'm not sure we can create much more uncertainty.

 

[Rich_NL]

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election?

The referendum didn't go against the government. Senior government figures were both for and against it; the only government stance was that a referendum should be held.

My prediction: no-one's going anywhere near article 50 for a long time. Cameron resigned before activating it because he didn't want to carry the can, BoJo and Gove are both humming and hawing hard about it, and the opposition are pushing them to do it because they know it'll be politically disastrous (and the SNP will instantly start hounding them for a second referendum).

The UK is going to negotiate for some sort of concession (that the EU will certainly not encourage), and if possible they'll come back with a New Deal that is Clearly Better for Britain and the UK end up staying. The EU can't afford to encourage the UK, but can't afford to lose them either. Populist politics will grow as people realise that this wasn't "people vs elite" but "elite vs elite using people as bargaining chips".

 

[crossref]

The only thing the EU can offer that will make a difference is a restriction of freedom of movement - the exact thing Cameron spent the last year trying to get.

I guess it's possible, but I don't see it as likely.

On the other hand the EU leaders will see advantages in UK leaving - it brings political union a big step nearer, and they'll forge some kind of trade agreement to protect their exports to the UK.

 

[Dixie]

Merkel says there will be no informal negotiations ahead of an Article 50 invocation. Stop for a moment and think about what is needed to run the UK again as an independent state. We can start with the 16,000 customs officers the UK ditched since 2005. There is a whole host of civil servants required to manage trade in dual-use goods between UK and EU - how many export licences will be required for movements of Dual use goods to Germany et al? Answer: many tens of thousands. How quickly can we issue 60 million blue UK passports? Where do we get a properly functional Fisheries Ministry when for decades we've outsourced fishing to Spain? If negotiations for a trade deal take 5 years, how long will it take to disentangle the thousands of issues the EU has had competence over, and which will now fall under the UK's purview?

It would be madness to invoke Article 50 without having a very clear steer from the EU about the road map for all this. Chicken and egg - they won't start talking until we start the clock, but we can't start the clock until at least a year after we start talking. This, of course, is exactly what Article 50 was designed for - preventing discontents from leaving.

 

[Taff]

... The UK is going to negotiate for some sort of concession (that the EU will certainly not encourage), and if possible they'll come back with a New Deal that is Clearly Better for Britain and the UK end up staying. The EU can't afford to encourage the UK, but can't afford to lose them either.

This is similar to what I reckon will happen.

I reckon the EU will make some concessions, the UK will be asked to have another vote, we will vote to stay in the EU second time around and the loveless marriage continues.

The only thing the EU can offer that will make a difference is a restriction of freedom of movement - the exact thing Cameron spent the last year trying to get.

Exactly.

.. On the other hand the EU leaders will see advantages in UK leaving - it brings political union a big step nearer, and they'll forge some kind of trade agreement to protect their exports to the UK.

Maybe it will "bring political union a big step nearer" but at what cost? The UK is the 2nd biggest net contributor; without us the rest of them will have to pay more.

 

[crossref]

For anyone interested in how people voted, and why, some comprehensive analysis (based on a HUGE survey!) is here

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

 

[Dixie]

Off to Brussels later today to discuss international trade mechanisms with TAXUD (responsible for the Union Customs Code). Will be interesting to see what sort of reception I get! Probably the same as Farage. Anything anyone wants me to mention?

 

[L'irlandais]

Just don't mention the war :

 

[Phil E]

Just don't mention the war

I mentioned it once; but I think I got away with it.

 

[RobLev]

And then there was today...

 

[L'irlandais]

At least the Germans still love you lot, wtf?

 

[Ricardowensleydale]

This will not happen. Corbyn was elected overwhelmingly by the membership. If they force another leadership election, he will win again.

He only got 49% of Labour Party members. 83% of those who paid £3 to vote and 57% of affiliated supporters (unions etc)

 

[Baselman]

I am in Oz at present looking at a trade deal and NZ in 2 weeks time. Nothing will happen for about 18 months but these Countries want to get in first.

By the way. I am glad we are going to come out (Hopefully). Best decision ever

 

[L'irlandais]

Hello Baselman,
While you are right in saying the Brexit process will take years, the negative consequences of the uncertainty surrounding the exit have been disastrous and immediate :

Certainly not a good decision for the UK economy!
The falling pound, has hit not just businesses and ex-pats, but also shoppers and holiday makers.
Source : BBC

Property-related stocks have been especially hard hit this week.
House builders and banks in the UK have been hard hit too.
Supermarkets like Tescos may have to lay staff off.

The list goes on, that is just a small sample from this week's press.

 

[Phil E]

Newtons third law. Our exports are now way more attractive. It's how the world works.

 

[L'irlandais]

I won't pretend to know if the future outside EU is positive, or not.
Bear in mind that the UK imports more than she exports, in the long term that may be telling.

* Exports. In 2014 the United Kingdom exported $472B, making it the 9th largest exporter in the world.
* Imports. In 2014 the United Kingdom imported $663B, making it the 5th largest importer in the world.

The current problem, is less to do with in or out, and more to do with the uncertainty having a negative effect on markets. Also foreign business using the UK as a back door to EU market, may well relocate following a Brexit. The examples in the linked article are pretty good.

 

[Taff]

I won't pretend to know if the future outside EU is positive, or not.

Define "positive".

"Positive" is a subjective term and will mean different things to different people. Eg to some people only a massive improvement in trade will be seen as positive, while the bloke next door may think that an Australian style points system is the most positive thing since sliced bread.

 

[L'irlandais]

I'd define positive as all things youthful, yet the youth are the big losers in Brexit.
Also as the perceived positives of a Brexit evaporate before our eyes, the menace of one negative aspect is fast taking form Russia is very happy to see the EU crumble, but then Putin does not hide the fact he see us as the enemy. If our enemies thing brexit a good thing, then perhaps the UK parliament might well think things over before going down that road.

Phil E mentioned exports :
The UK's exports of goods and services to the Commonwealth in 2014 were worth £47.8bn. The comparable figure for the EU was £228.9bn. So even if you double or triple sales to Commonwealth nations, it will not out way the loss of easy access to EU markets.

 

[RobLev]

I'd define positive as all things youthful, yet the youth are the big losers in Brexit.
Also as the perceived positives of a Brexit evaporate before our eyes, the menace of one negative aspect is fast taking form Russia is very happy to see the EU crumble, but then Putin does not hide the fact he see us as the enemy. If our enemies thing brexit a good thing, then perhaps the UK parliament might well think things over before going down that road.

Phil E mentioned exports :
The UK's exports of goods and services to the Commonwealth in 2014 were worth £47.8bn. The comparable figure for the EU was £228.9bn. So even if you double or triple sales to Commonwealth nations, it will not out way the loss of easy access to EU markets.

And the problem with loss of the single market isn't just tariffs; it's non-tariff barriers to trade as well. Goods manufactured here meeting applicable standards are passported across Europe; once outside the single market, documentary proof of adherence to EU standards, confirmed by a certificated approval and inspection regime, will be required for each shipment crossing each border.

Notwithstanding Baselman's optimism, I can see no upside whatsoever to Brexit.