[Law] How Brexit may affect your wallet.

[Pegleg]

Gents, for better, or for worse, the UK population have made known their wish to leave the EU.
All subsequent political decisions must take that fact into account.

Ps. I was quoting the Beeb's response to the notion a newly elected government could say their manifesto trumps the referendum result. I don't think the Beeb were missing the point, rather they were responding to it. A fuller extract, may make that clearer :

There is another scenario which could see the result overturned, says the BBC: "If MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one."

How likely would that be?
Very unlikely, say experts. Many commentators, including at the BBC, argue it would be "political suicide" if the government were to dismiss the result of a democratic vote

Again you ignore the point that IF a new government was elected by the will of the people on a platform of staying in the EU. It would have a madate to do so and stay in the EU. The Election would be a defacto referendum on the issue. It would hardly be "Political suicide" to keep an election promise.

 

[Pegleg]

It would be a hard sell, but 35% of the electorate sound really very unhappy and I'd expect someone to try to tap into that. And you don't need a popular majority to form a working government - I forget when the last one was, but it wasn't in my lifetime. Even in Labour's win in '97 they had about 35% of the popular vote.

1931 55%

 

[Pegleg]

Spot on, which is why his proposal of a "unilateral withdrawal", can never work, it depends on the goodwill of people he has been insulting for years. How good of him to promise things, he is in no position to guarantee.
One very likely scenario now, is that the PM invokes Article 50 without delay. Source : scroll to end

He's already said he will not do that.

 

[Pegleg]

meanwhile we might get thrown out!


http://www.theguardian.com/politics...eader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

There is nothing in the treaty to allow expulsion. There was a proposal but it did not make it into the Lisburn treaty. So whilst the EU amy want this resolved ASAP. It does not start untill the Boris (sorry the new PM) says so.

 

[ianh5979]

It should be added that up to 75% of those under 25 who are enfranchised voted to remain, and that those under 18 didn't get a vote.

Please justify your stat! there was no exit poll, and with a secret ballot how do you know how 75% of under 25 voted?

 

[Rushforth]

http://bgr.com/2016/06/24/brexit-vote-results-age-generation-uk/

Yougov got it wrong on the day, but I said "up to".

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36574526 point 7 too - if likelihood of voting at all correlates with age (and it does) and 60% of 65+ vote leave, but the result is 52%, then there is going to be a demographic that voted more in favour of remain.

Unless you wanted me to justify the fact that those under 18 - who got a vote in the Scottish referendum - didn't in this one. Indeed, there will have been Scottish teenagers that did vote before, and won't have now. (Do I need to provide a list of them?)

 

[Pegleg]

I'm not sure that the speculation in the article you quote is statistically relevant not is the use of the expresion "up to". IT's an expression which is statistically persuasive to the unaware (but we actually know that 1% is "up to" 95%). It's a nonsense term. I could say that Wales has won "up to" 90% of its test with New Zealand. Factually correct but as useful as a condom in the Vatican.

 

[Taff]

... No rush. Take the time. Don't invoke Article 50, don't turn on the clock, and put everyone under pressure. Take the time, negotiate as many of the required treaties as possible before invoking Article 50, and then it doesn't have to be 2 years after that, it could be much quicker.

And until Article 50 is invoked, UK still has a say in EU policy, so can use that as a bargaining tool if the EU try and carry out a nasty negotiation (As threatened by Junker et al.) But this option vanishes once Article 50 is invoked.

I like it. If you don't mind Flipflop, I will copy and paste that.

The EU only has itself to blame. Mr Cameron tried to get some good (much needed IMO) reforms, but the EU played hard-ball and just threw him a few crumbs as a token gesture. Unlimited freedom of movement is not acceptable to the majority of the UK; if the EU had agreed to Mr Cameron's requests I am convinced that the majority would have voted to remain. Of course, the EU didn't agree to our suggested reforms and now the 2nd biggest net EU contributor (Germany is the biggest) has voted "Out".

This of course has massive consequences for the EU, because now the remaining countries either have to dip into their pockets and cough up more themselves (no idea who will be paying Greece's increase for them) OR they accept that the EU budget will be reduced. Neither option will be popular in EU land.

Will BREXIT hit me in the wallet personally? Directly no, because we don't sell into or buy from the EU. If there was a recession, then I would get hit just like everybody else, but I've worked through 2 recessions already.

 

[didds]

wrt the demographics of age voting statistics whilst its a secret ballot, nonetheless as you'll have noticed when you have voted, your name and details get crossed through on a list.

presumably this list cold be scrutinised and the basic underlying demographics already known (cos you are on an electoral roll) used to provide such stats.

didds

 

[Dixie]

51.5% of the 72% of adults who voted.

It should be added that up to 75% of those under 25 who are enfranchised voted to remain, and that those under 18 didn't get a vote.

Many of my daughter's friends are blaming the over 50's for ruining their future by voting Brexit. Probably worth pointing out that the fault lies with their own generation. 28% of the voting population couldn't be bothered to express an opinion. The vast majority of them would have been young - and we are told that the young on balance preferred Remain. Had the yoof exercised its right to vote, we'd still be in by a huge margin.

 

[RobLev]

Many of my daughter's friends are blaming the over 50's for ruining their future by voting Brexit. Probably worth pointing out that the fault lies with their own generation. 28% of the voting population couldn't be bothered to express an opinion. The vast majority of them would have been young - and we are told that the young on balance preferred Remain. Had the yoof exercised its right to vote, we'd still be in by a huge margin.

My daughter (who voted) this morning asked why the seniors couldn't have had their teenage rebellion on some other subject than screwing up her future.

I don't know exactly what turnout amongst 18-24 year olds was, but doubt there were enough votes there to turn round the majority. Note though that June 23 is not a good date for 18-21 year olds, who are taking exams from A-levels up to degree finals; and many of whom (in the case of 19-21 year olds) will have been away from home at university. Yes, they could arrange a postal vote; but tht's not quite as easy and convenient as shuffling round the corner to the polling station on your zimmer to vote in person; which would further erode turnout amongst that age-group.

 

[L'irlandais]

For those who suggest it's not possible to know what age group was more likely to vote leave or remain :

A survey by Lord Ashcroft of 12,369 referendum voters after they had cast their ballot suggested that the older they were, the more likely they were to have voted Leave.

National statistics would be more useful, however this survey is useful in understanding the referendum results.

- - - Updated - - -

Cannot attach their bar chart, because the forum only accepts images of a certain number of kbytes!

 

[Taff]

Many of my daughter's friends are blaming the over 50's for ruining their future by voting Brexit. Probably worth pointing out that the fault lies with their own generation. 28% of the voting population couldn't be bothered to express an opinion. The vast majority of them would have been young - and we are told that the young on balance preferred Remain. Had the yoof exercised its right to vote, we'd still be in by a huge margin.

Exactly.

I had a 21yr old tell me yesterday "Thanks for *%^&*ing up my future". It was said with a smile on his face, but I think he was partly serious.

It turned out that he hadn't even voted. You only have yourself to blame then mate. :wtf:

 

[Pegleg]

For those who suggest it's not possible to know what age group was more likely to vote leave or remain :

A survey by Lord Ashcroft of 12,369 referendum voters after they had cast their ballot suggested that the older they were, the more likely they were to have voted Leave.

National statistics would be more useful, however this survey is useful in understanding the referendum results.

So a tiny "exit poll". Hmm the one at the last election was so accurate Not sure I will give such a small poll much creedence.

 

[crossref]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/who-will-dare-pull-trigger-article-50-eu

 

[Treadmore]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/who-will-dare-pull-trigger-article-50-eu

I certainly hope no trigger is pulled on Article 50 yet because if we are to negotiate to leave I don't want negotiations being led by a bunch a MPs who mostly wanted to stay.

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election? It would give the nation a chance to select which Leave manifesto they wish to back (or if you're hopeful of staying, choosing a leader to tell the EU we're staying).

 

[crossref]

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election? It would give the nation a chance to select which Leave manifesto they wish to back (or if you're hopeful of staying, choosing a leader to tell the EU we're staying).

I think we'll have one

 

[Taff]

I certainly hope no trigger is pulled on Article 50 yet because if we are to negotiate to leave I don't want negotiations being led by a bunch a MPs who mostly wanted to stay.

Are you confident that any MP has the negotiating skills needed? Personally if I was in charge I would get a bus load of the best negotiators this country has to offer - and bluntly, they are unlikely to be MPs.

Given the referendum went against the Government shouldn't we have a general election? It would give the nation a chance to select which Leave manifesto they wish to back (or if you're hopeful of staying, choosing a leader to tell the EU we're staying).

They may decide that there is enough uncertainty already, and don't want to create more.

 

[4eyesbetter]

I think we'll have one

How? Remember that Fixed-Term Parliaments Act that Nick Clegg was so proud of? It's still there. Let's say Boris Johnson ends up as prime minister. To call an election before 2020, the sensible option means he has to scare up a two-thirds majority from somewhere to pass a motion for an early election. You need 433 votes for that. That means he would need about 100 Labour MPs to vote for the motion.

The silly option would be to use his own majority to pass a motion of no confidence against his own caretaker government, which would unquestionably be the most ridiculous possible way to start a general election. Bonus silly points if a bunch of anti-Johnson rebels then try to thwart him by saying that in fact they have confidence in his government that they don't like very much, at which point HM might as well send for the Monster Raving Loony Party.

 

[RobLev]

So a tiny "exit poll". Hmm the one at the last election was so accurate Not sure I will give such a small poll much creedence.

12,369 is huge. And, unlike a referendum, an exit poll at a GE isn't so much about raw vote numbers, but distribution of those votes, in a FPTP system.

With a poll of 12,369, you can be 99% sure that the true answer is within c1.16% of the number produced in the poll - see the calculator here: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm