[Law] How Brexit may affect your wallet.

[L'irlandais]

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Well I am sure that some will stand to make a profit from the change. However it is a bloody shame that the young generation stand to lose most :
The U.K. has sent a clear message to young Europeans, "We don't need you!"

Many Europeans living and working in the UK are now facing uncertain career paths, thanks to Brexit. But young people stand to lose out the most.
Losing younger, educated workers could be one of the biggest problems facing UK firms, warned Alex Hemsley, co-founder and director at Global {M}, a London-based technology and financial services recruiting firm.

However that attitude may well come back to bite UK based industry on the bum, in the not too distant future. The grass always looks greener on the other side, until you actually get there.

 

[Phil E]

Well I am sure that some will stand to make a profit from the change. However it is a bloody shame that the young generation stand to lose most :
The U.K. has sent a clear message to young Europeans, "We don't need you!"

Who in the UK sent that message? I haven't seen it.
Why will they no longer be able to come? They came before we joined the EU, what's different?
They travel to countries outside the EU like Australia, what's the difference?

More uneducated scaremongering.

 

[SimonSmith]

Who in the UK sent that message? I haven't seen it.
Why will they no longer be able to come? They came before we joined the EU, what's different?
They travel to countries outside the EU like Australia, what's the difference?

More uneducated scaremongering.

because the bar for them to be able to make the move is that much more difficult to climb. Instead of free unrestricted movement, they'll be subject to working or living visa conditions in place.

Let's look at what an American has to prove to be able to work in the UK:
Here's a tier 2 intra company transfer https://www.gov.uk/tier-2-intracompany-transfer-worker-visa/eligibility

It's not exactly freedom of movement is it? My employer is now having to look at moving our EMEA HQ out of London to an EU country so we can continue to transact business freely and allow our staff all the rights and protections that they currently have.

We're not alone.

 

[L'irlandais]

Who in the UK sent that message? I haven't seen it.

That particular message, has been well documented over the past couple of weeks. If you are genuinely interested, the articles are still online.

Why will they no longer be able to come? They came before we joined the EU, what's different?
They travel to countries outside the EU like Australia, what's the difference?

More uneducated scaremongering.

The freelance journalist, Renuka Rayasam, is quite well educated.

I don't think she is scaremongering either, whatever the eventual outcome for the UK, a lot of folks are already suffering the consequences of the Brexit decision.

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[L'irlandais]

because the bar for them to be able to make the move is that much more difficult to climb. Instead of free unrestricted movement, they'll be subject to working or living visa conditions in place.

This must be the most likely outcome. Suffer economically to regain control over one's own borders, fair enough. It makes little sense to leave the EU (& EEA) in order to regain control over immigration, and then agree to unrestricted movement as before the Brexit.

20. If EU migrants were, in future, to be subject to the still tighter regime that is now applied to non-EU migrants, the effect would be even greater. Work permits for non-EU migrants are now restricted to higher-skilled jobs and jobs where there is a recognised skills shortage. These higher skilled jobs are limited to those at National Qualifications Framework (NQF) level 6 and above. Of the 1,330,000 EU migrants in work who have arrived since 2004, only 275,000 or 20% would have qualified under these criteria.

Source : online

 

[RobLev]

Who in the UK sent that message? I haven't seen it.
Why will they no longer be able to come? They came before we joined the EU, what's different?
They travel to countries outside the EU like Australia, what's the difference?

More uneducated scaremongering.

The Leave side made a number of complaints about immigration; specifically, the alleged impacts on housing, the NHS and wages/employment.

While there are problems in all these areas, however, they result from UK government policy.

On housing - for 35 years and counting, we've been building far fewer houses than we need; on average, just under 200k annual starts, instead of the 325k average annual starts over the decades before that. Why? Right to buy, capital controls on local authority housing, and a mystical belief that "the market will provide". All those lost annual starts came from local authority figures; housing associations actually increased their building, leaving the private builders building fewer.

NHS: the EU immigrant profile is younger and fitter than the UK population generally, hence less of a burden proportionately. They are massively over-represented on the NHS staff side - 10% of doctors and 26% of other staff. The problem is the UK government just won't spend what is required on the NHS.

Wages/employment: The major (LSE) study shows that there is no noticeable correlation between wages and employment for the UK-born on the one hand, and concentrations of EU immigrants on the other; which strongly implies that they don't depress the wages of the UK-born, or take their jobs.

I've been told about builders unable to compete with companies who employ Romanians living 5 to a house; presumably however they've never seen "Two pints of lager and a packet of crisps".

On the other hand, non-EU immigration (in greater volume than EU and supposedly controlled), are somewhat affected by EU immigrant concentrations.

EU immigrants do make a positive contribution to the economy - both to GDP and to GDP per head.

All of which rather makes the Leave arguments on immigration look like "uneducated scaremongering".

 

[Phil E]

No one I know who voted leave had immigration anywhere on their list of reasons for voting that way.

 

[SimonSmith]

Or, was prepared to admit that for fear of being accused of being a racist?

 

[crossref]

Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.” Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice “about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead.” Only just over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that “when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it.”

Overall, small majorities of voters thought EU membership would be better for the economy, international investment, and the UK’s influence in the world. Leaving the EU was thought more likely to bring about a better immigration system, improved border controls, a fairer welfare system, better quality of life, and the ability to control our own laws

lots more information like this here - easily the most comprehensive research done on the referendum (so far as I know)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/#more-14746

 

[didds]

No one I know who voted leave had immigration anywhere on their list of reasons for voting that way.

That may be so Phil.... but its was evident that many, many did.

including this well informed chap...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFjfbL1KWNI

didds


PS the Youtube button isn't working

 

[Rushforth]

Or, was prepared to admit that for fear of being accused of being a racist?

The Dutch populist parties over the last decade or two have been openly anti-islam (as opposed to anti-racist), and gathered up to 20% of the popular vote in proportional elections.

I would estimate that in any given population, there is a correlation (not causation either way, mind) between low education and xenophobia. To be a bit more specific, the thickest 20% in one area may be almost the same as the thickest 20% in similar area.

I've experienced it at first hand in the Netherlands, despite being born here, speaking the language fluently, being white, and very young. By "it" I mean "**** off back to your own country". This was in 1992, the year of Maastricht IIRC.

Simon, you are from (or at least in) Virginia. A state that was involved in a war over racism back in the 1860s. I imagine there is still some racism in your neck of the woods (all the more so if it is red - the neck not the wood). The master race battles over here happened less than half that long ago. People aren't scared to be accused of being a racist over here, in one of the most liberal countries (after the scandinavians, but only just), so they won't be in the UK either.

Stupid is as stupid does, and all that.

 

[DocY]

That may be so Phil.... but its was evident that many, many did.

including this well informed chap...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFjfbL1KWNI

didds


PS the Youtube button isn't working

Oh good god!

I'm ashamed to say I do know quite a few people who voted leave "because immigration". I also know some people who voted to stay because "losing sovereignty is punishment for imperialism", so I guess it goes both ways.

 

[RobLev]

No one I know who voted leave had immigration anywhere on their list of reasons for voting that way.

And yet freedom of movement is apparently a red-line in the Brexit negotiations. Go figure.

 

[Dickie E]

I would estimate that in any given population, there is a correlation (not causation either way, mind) between low education and xenophobia. To be a bit more specific, the thickest 20% in one area may be almost the same as the thickest 20% in similar area.

I find the suggestion that lack of education makes someone thick or stupid quite, well, stupid.

The families of those caught up in the Nice atrocity are probably justifiably feeling a bit xenophobic at the moment.

 

[Rushforth]

I find the suggestion that lack of education makes someone thick or stupid quite, well, stupid.

There is a reason that I didn't use the word stupid until the final sentence of my post, in which I used the word twice, or rather quoted the phrase from a film you clearly haven't seen.

However, I don't mind being stupid myself, all that much. I know exactly how stupid I am, thank you very much. And that is very stupid indeed.

That said, I am not thick, although I understand those that are. I was shocked by a Dutch documentary that the bottom 20% of society in terms of pay, by which I mean those that retire as dustmen or whatever, actually subsidise people like my father who has just has had a major stroke at age 83.

To put it a bit more sympathetically, you can take your finding of my suggestion and stick it up your bottom if you are so stupid as to not understand how the poorer half lives, even in very well developed liberal societies. Or in shorter terms, FO!

 

[Dickie E]

give my best to your Dad. Hope all turns out well.

 

[Dixie]

So we are a month into the idea that Brexit will happen, and the world still seems to be functioning. The UK property market is powering ahead; the FTSE 100 stands at a level higher than it was the week before the Brexit vote; Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, notes that markets have been resilient; Bank of England interest rate setters declined to adjust rates having found that for 75% of UK companies it was "business as usual". The new Chancellor of the Exchequer has not found it necessary to introduce any Emergency Budget as the old one stated was a sine qua non of the wrong outcome; for everyone finding that a foreign holiday has become more expensive due to the fall in the Pound, there is a hotelier, restauranteur, shop-owner or resort manager grateful for the influx of foreigners celebrating cheap UK. And contrary to Mr Cameron's prediction, I'm not aware that we have gone to war with anyone yet.

Remind me what the issue was?

 

[SimonSmith]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36864273
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36864099

Nothing to see here. Move along please

 

[RobLev]

So we are a month into the idea that Brexit will happen, and the world still seems to be functioning. The UK property market is powering ahead; the FTSE 100 stands at a level higher than it was the week before the Brexit vote; Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, notes that markets have been resilient; Bank of England interest rate setters declined to adjust rates having found that for 75% of UK companies it was "business as usual". The new Chancellor of the Exchequer has not found it necessary to introduce any Emergency Budget as the old one stated was a sine qua non of the wrong outcome; for everyone finding that a foreign holiday has become more expensive due to the fall in the Pound, there is a hotelier, restauranteur, shop-owner or resort manager grateful for the influx of foreigners celebrating cheap UK. And contrary to Mr Cameron's prediction, I'm not aware that we have gone to war with anyone yet.

Remind me what the issue was?

We haven't actually left yet; and the pound is already trading at least 10% below where it was. That will shortly lead to inflationary pressures (white-goods manufaturers are going to put UK prices up 10% in the very near future, and the same will be true of most consumer goods, given how few are manufactured (rather than assembled) in the UK).

In the meantime, we've already lost ARM - our only leading computing technology company - to a Japanese company given a 30% discount because of the collapse of the pound.

More than half the UK property fund market (by value) remains suspended to prevent collapse

Housebuilders' share prices have collapsed, and the only reason there's any thought that house prices may not collapse is because of how appalling we are at getting houses built. I'm not quite sure how we are to understand the UK property market powering ahead.

UK short-medium term growth forecasts have been dramatically downgraded.

As Simon's links show, the PMI shows that we are not looking at expansion. The Chancellor isn't looking at an emergency budget as such, but instead rejecting the Tories' guiding principle for the last 6 years so as to prevent recession.

And we haven't left yet...

 

[L'irlandais]

Anyone for fudge?